Kyle Chalmers, Pan Zhanle Lead 100 Freestyle Into Olympic Year
Think back one year, when David Popovici had just firmly grasped control of the blue-ribband event in men’s swimming, the 100 freestyle. After the 17-year-old captured his first world title, he followed up with a historic performance at the European Championships. Popovici’s 46.86 knocked off a 13-year-old world record that had lasted since the era of full-body polyurethane suits that significantly enhanced performance, and for good measure, he became the third-fastest man ever in the 200 free.
David Popovici — Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
The question moving forward was how Popovici would handle the return of two 100 freestyle stalwarts to major competition, Australia’s Kyle Chalmers and the United States’ Caeleb Dressel. Chalmers had sat out the individual race at the 2022 Worlds while Dressel withdrew from the meet for health reasons.
If a hypothetical time-traveler could go back in time, few who follow swimming closely would have believed the 2023 results. Dressel’s absence from Worlds would not have been too surprising since he had already announced he was taking a hiatus from the sport, but a Worlds podium consisting of Chalmers, Jack Alexy and Maxime Grousset, with Popovici off the pace? No way.
And the idea that the only swimmer to break 47 would be 19-year-old Chinese swimmer Pan Zhanle? Unlikely. Not that Pan was an unknown; he had finished fourth at the 2022 Worlds, only eight hundredths off the podium.
Pan arrived at the 2023 edition of the global meet with the world’s quickest time so far. He posted solid times in Fukuoka but did not quite match his 47.22 entry time, with his 47.43 in the final leaving him just one hundredth behind Grousset’s bronze-medal time. Pan would earn his first medal at a major meet days later as he anchored the Chinese men to 400 medley relay silver.
Now, though, Pan sits atop the world, with only an exclusive group of Popovici, Cesar Cielo, Alain Bernard and Dressel having ever surpassed the 46.97 that Pan swam on the way to Asian Games gold, with a 22.45 outgoing split and 24.52 coming home. That finishing speed is not on the level of the 24.12 in which Popovici closed when he set the world record, but that’s not a fair comparison for anyone.
Simply, it’s an elite performance, and replicating that swim in the Olympic final would put Pan squarely in the gold-medal conversation. Of course, the circumstances in Paris will present much greater mental and physical challenges for swimmers than a continental championship meet where Pan was the heavy favorite.
Sure to be in the mix at the Olympics is Chalmers, who won Olympic gold as at age 18 at the 2016 Olympics. The Aussie has posted times in the 47.0 or 47.1 range at his last three major finals, including silver-medal swims (behind Dressel) at the 2019 Worlds and 2021 Olympics before his world title this year. Chalmers shows up when the moment counts.
Popovici seems like a strong bet to bounce back. No swimming career is unblemished, and given the Romanian teenager’s preposterous talent, Popovici’s 2023 may be remembered as just one poor year. Way too soon to count him out. Dressel is more of a wildcard, with the defending gold medalist not approaching his top marks after an abbreviated 2023 season, but a full preparation will surely boost the reinvigorated 27-year-old next season.
Maxime Grousset — Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Grousset has become a consistent performer in big moments in the 100 free in recent years, taking silver at the Worlds final last year before his bronze in 2023. The Frenchman was also the world champion in the 100 butterfly this year. Canada’s Josh Liendo did not swim particularly well at this year’s Worlds, but he has 47-low talent, too, and Great Britain’s Matt Richards jumped onto the scene this year, his numerous 47 performances culminating in a fifth-place Worlds finish after his upset title in the 200 free.
Finally, Alexy has as much speed as anyone globally and plenty of momentum after dropping more than one second in the 100 free this year. Considered a threat to qualify for the U.S. World Championships team as a relay swimmer, Alexy ended up winning the event in domestic waters before stepping up significantly in Fukuoka. His start in the semifinals was nearly disastrous, but he rebounded to sneak into the final, where he came through for a silver medal.
The youth movement in the 100 free started last year with Popovici’s ascendance, but now that trend is even more obvious: Richards, Alexy and Tokyo fourth-place finisher Hwang Sunwoo, all 20; Pan, 19; Popovici, 18; Liendo and 2023 Worlds finalist Jordan Crooks, both 21. And for all Chalmers and Dressel have accomplished, both men are surely closer to the conclusion of their respective elite careers than the beginning.
For an X-factor, don’t forget about Kliment Kolesnikov, provided the Russian is permitted to return to international competition as a neutral athlete. Kolesnikov has impressed mostly in backstroke during his country’s two-year exile from major meets, but he was the bronze medalist behind Dressel and Chalmers in Tokyo, swimming as fast as 47.11.
In Paris, we will see if Popovici can get back to record-breaking form. We will see which of these rising stars can channel their 2023 momentum for another big jump. And we will see whether one of the veterans has one more golden moment in the tank.
