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WNBA: Dallas Wings’ poor record was about more than injuries

by Venesa6
September 29, 2024
in Basketball
0
WNBA: Dallas Wings’ poor record was about more than injuries

Last season, following earning the No. 4 seed, sweeping their first-round playoff series and challenging the eventual champs in the semifinals, it seemed that the Dallas Wings were ascendant.

A talented team that had failed to launch had finally begun to achieve their potential. Led by a pair of surefire stars, they appeared to be soaring toward the contender conversation, as the only team to earn a win over the league’s top-three teams—the Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun—during the 2023 season.

In 2024, the Wings crashed. They finished 9-31, good for eleventh place in the final standings. They also had losing streaks of 11 games and nine games.

Although an abundance of injuries are partly to blame for Dallas’ devolution, the organization—if it wants to quickly return to a rising contender status—cannot excuse health as the only reason for the team’s failings. The Wings’ 2024 season also revealed infrastructural weaknesses that, if not addressed, could see the 2023 season be the high point of the Arike Ogunbowale-Satou Sabally era of Wings basketball.

Here’s more on what when right, what went wrong and what’s next for the Wings:


What went right in Dallas?

Minnesota Lynx v Dallas Wings

Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally.
Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images

Arike is still Arike

While justifiable criticisms can be levied against Arike Ogunbowale’s game, as she is a ball-dominant offensive player who sometimes shoots first, second and third, the results are undeniable. She is a one-woman dynamo, capable of a carrying an offense through her three-level scoring. As was on full display at the 2024 All-Star Game, she’ll drain contested triples, hit nasty stepbacks and burn defenders off the dribble, seemingly gaining more mastery as the attempts become more difficult.

Just six seasons into her WNBA career, she’s already the leading scorer in Wings franchise history. The team’s drop off this season was not due to a down year from the four-time All-Star, as her production and percentages remained in line with her career averages. In short, she is a centripetal star worth continuing to build around.

Satou is still Satou

As is Satou Sabally.

After missing all games before the Olympic break as she recovered from a shoulder injury, Sabally’s 15-game stint showed that she had not lost any of her shine. The 2023 Most Improved Player exhibited an aggressive offensive mindset during her just over 500 minutes played. She fired up over 5.6 3s per game and made more than 45 percent of them. If those numbers maintain over a larger sample size, she could reach another level of Unicorn-dom in 2025. Add in better conditioning and cohesion with teammates, and Sabally should prove why she belonged in the top 10 of Swish Appeal’s Hoopers Hierarchy.

Sheldon, Siegrist are keepers

The Wings have had a disproportionate number of high draft picks over the past half decade. Too many of them have failed to find their footing with the team. The home-run selections of Ogunbowale and Sabally have been surrounded by strikeouts or singles.

The organization’s last two top picks—Maddy Siegrist (No. 3, 2023) and Jacy Sheldon (No. 5, 2024)—look like solid doubles, if not triples.

Although a fluke finger injury limited her to 27 games, Siegrist showed the makings of a longtime fifth starter or super sixth player. While she accepts her supporting role as a thankless worker, she’s also capable of contributing a more when called upon, as she can score efficiently inside the arc.

As Edwin Garcia recently wrote, Sheldon is the perfect puzzle piece. An athletic combo guard with defensive chops, she appears to be an ideal backcourt partner for Ogunbowale. She can guard the other team’s best perimeter player, force turnovers, push the ball in transition and attack a scrambling defense in the halfcourt. Her improvement over the course of the season—from a skittish rookie to a player comfortable in her starting role—suggests she might have an even higher ceiling.

What went wrong in Dallas?

Minnesota Lynx v Dallas Wings

Latricia Trammell.
Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images

Defense

During her four seasons as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Sparks, defense was Latricia Trammell’s calling card. Four Sparks would earn All-Defensive honors under her guidance, while Candace Parker was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2020.

Last season, her first as head coach in Dallas, she was able to induce modest improvements on that end. The Wings’ personnel limits the team’s defensive potential; she understood the importance of helping them become solid enough.

This season, all those improvements evaporated. Dallas not only had the league’s worst defense, with a defense rating of 111.7, but also the worst defense in the league since the 2020 Indiana Fever, which won six games during the abbreviated Wubble season.

More defense (or lack thereof)

Scan through defensive statistics and Dallas is at (or near) the bottom of almost every category. Wings’ opponents shot the highest percentage from field and from 3. Dallas also bled easy buckets, giving up the most free throws, points off turnovers, fastbreak points and points in the paint.

In the 2023, the Wings owned the glass, leading the league in rebounds. After grabbing almost 73 percent of defense boards last season, that number dropped to 68.5 percent this season. Accordingly, after surrendering less than 10 second-chance points per game last season, they gave up 11.4 second-chance scores this season.

Those leaks on the margins contributed to Dallas’ flood of defensive issues. Yes, injuries to Sabally, Siegrist and Natasha Howard, in particular, prevented Dallas from developing defensive connectedness. But, injuries do not justify the team’s historically-pitiful performance.

What’s next for the Wings?

Los Angeles Sparks v Dallas Wings

Natasha Howard.
Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images

Lotto luck!

For suffering through an injury-plagued season, the Wings will be rewarded with two stabs at the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft. In return for sending Marina Mabrey to the Chicago Sky in 2023, Dallas received the right to swap their 2025 first-round draft pick with Chicago. So, if the Sky win the 2025 draft lottery, their top selection will belong to the Wings. The combined lotto balls give the Wings a 45.4 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick, and the right to bring Paige Bueckers, Kiki Iriafen or another collegiate star to Texas. At worst, Dallas will have the No. 3 overall pick in the upcoming draft.

45.4% comes from the combined odds of both teams (i.e. 27.6% + 17.8%)

That consequential pick swap was acquired in the 2023 Marina Mabrey trade

Washington, meanwhile, has a 10.4% chance of getting the top pick

— Alexa Philippou (@alexaphilippou) September 20, 2024

Flash is gone. Will Satou stay?

Natasha Howard dismissed with any drama about her future. The unrestricted free agent forward made it clear she will not be returning to Dallas. Although her two seasons in a Wings uniform will not be considered Howard’s best years, she will be difficult for Dallas to replace. When she’s rolling, her shifty post moves can stymie opponents, abilities that are enhanced by her decent range as shooter. And though Howard is no longer the quick-twitch defensive force she was with the Seattle Storm, losing her above-average versatility on that end certainly will not alleviate the Wings’ defensive woes.

After signing a one-year contract as a restricted free agent last offseason, Sabally now is an unrestricted free agent. Re-signing her (likely on another one-year deal due to the expected CBA expiration after the 2025 season) has to be the Wings’ first, second, third and fourth priority. Seeing her choose another WNBA home would be a disaster for Dallas.

Year 3 for LT?

Until public clarity is provided about Trammell’s future, whether or not she returns has to be a question. It was reported that Trammell signed a three-year deal in 2023.

As Dallas had five coaches in six seasons before hiring Trammell, an argument can be made that giving her more time to build a culture is required. Alternatively, as the defensive-first head coach oversaw an awful defense, believing (yet another) new voice is need also is reasonable. Trammell herself could make the decision if her former employer, the Sparks, comes calling after parting ways with head coach Curt Miller.


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