WNBA: Draft lottery stakes for Wings, Sparks, Mystics and Sky

On Sunday, Nov. 17 (5 p.m. ET, ESPN), the Los Angeles Sparks, Dallas Wings or Washington Mystics will win the 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery and earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft. The Chicago Sky also are participating in the lottery; however, because the team traded pick swap rights to the Wings to acquire Marina Mabrey in 2023, the Sky’s chances effectively belong to Dallas.

That consequential transaction gives the Wings, now under the leadership of new general manager Curt Miller, the best odds of landing the No. 1 pick at 45.4 percent. The Sparks, Miller’s former team, claim the second-best odds at 44.2 percent. The Mystics have a long shot of securing the top pick at 10.4 percent. The expansion Golden State Valkyries are not included in the lottery; the WNBA’s newest franchise will have the No. 5 pick.

While UConn redshirt senior guard Paige Bueckers is expected to be the prize for whichever franchise earns the right to pick first in the 2025 draft, the class projects to be a deep one, as our Eric Nemchock already has emphasized.

Here’s a brief look at what’s a stake for the three teams that could win the No. 1 pick, as well as what having a lottery pick means for the Sky:

Dallas Wings (45.4 percent)

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As head coach of the Sparks, Miller encountered little luck, as his team dealt with an inordinate amount of injuries during his two-season stint in LA. Winning the draft lottery less than two weeks after being hired as Dallas’ new general manager would suggest Miller’s luck will have shifted, with the basketball gods blessing him with the right to select Bueckers.

Building a perennial contender for a franchise that has struggled to establish any sort of consistency certainly would be easier with Bueckers on board. She and Arike Ogunbowale would form quite the fearsome backcourt. Her arrival also might make it easier for Miller to convince impending unrestricted free agent Satou Sabally to re-sign with Wings, along with luring more players from a stacked free agent class to Texas.

Los Angeles Sparks (44.2 percent)

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If LA lands the No. 1 pick, they suddenly would sport one of the league’s most promising, complementary young cores, with Bueckers in the backcourt, Rickea Jackson on the wing and a hopefully fully-recovered Cameron Brink in the post. After several lost seasons, the Sparks would begin to reclaim the sense of exceptionalism that has defined pro basketball in Los Angeles.

LA also would surround their young trio of stars with a veteran core, highlighted by 2024 All-Star Dearica Hamby. Hamby, Azurá Stevens and Steph Talbot all signed extensions during the 2024 season. In a league that could see much upheaval this offseason, the Sparks’ relative continuity, albeit infused with a new head coach and young star, could set up the team to exceed expectations in 2025.

Washington Mystics (10.4 percent)

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Unfortunately for UConn fans, Aaliyah Edwards and Bueckers did not share the court as much as they would have liked during the players’ four seasons together in Storrs. While Edwards has been an iron woman, Bueckers’ collegiate career has been interrupted by injuries. But, seeing them together in DC could still be pretty sweet.

The pairing also would provide direction for the rebuilding Mystics, who decided to dispatch the father-son Thibault leadership team and find a fresher vision for the team’s future. Winning the No. 1 pick and adding Bueckers certainly would make that future look brighter. It also might encourage a melding of past and future. Could the arrival of Bueckers, along with a new head coach, entice Elena Delle Donne to again suit up in DC?

Chicago Sky (0.0 percent)

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Yeah, seeing Bueckers set up Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso for easy scores would have been pretty fun. And yes, it will be painful if Chicago wins the No. 1 pick, only to have to give it to Dallas.

But, the Sky’s execution of last year’s draft—nabbing Cardoso at No. 3 and Reese at No. 7—should inspire confidence in the organization’s prospect evaluation process. That the 2025 draft has depth at the guard position also is fortuitous for Chicago, as the team has its frontcourt of the future with Reese and Cardoso. New head coach Tyler Marsh’s proven track record as a player development coach also should allow the organization to consider a range of players with different strengths and weaknesses, knowing that the coach could entice unexpected improvement. Marsh’s most famous pupil, Jackie Young, arrived in the WNBA with a wayward shot only to become a proficient shooter and perennial All-Star.