March Madness: Can Kiki Iriafen lead a Watkins-less USC to the Elite Eight?

If you’re a fan of basketball, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a four-game stretch more exciting than Saturday’s Sweet 16 Slate.

Things kick off with action from Regional 3 (Birmingham), with No. 2-seed TCU meeting No. 3-seed Notre Dame in a rematch at 1 p.m. ET followed by No. 1-seed Texas tussling with No. 5-seed Tennessee at 3:30 p.m. ET. Both games will be on ABC. Then, the stage shifts to Regional 4 (Spokane), where No. 3-seed Oklahoma looks to challenge No. 2-seed UConn at 5:30 p.m. ET and No. 5-seed Kansas State will face No. 1-seed USC at 8 p.m. ET. The second set of games will be broadcast on ESPN.

Even with two No. 1-seed teams in play, all four games project to be barn burners. Here’s why:

No. 2-seed TCU vs. No. 3-seed Notre Dame (1 p.m. ET, ABC)

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TCU was the subject of many, many conversations last offseason. Hailey Van Lith was changing scenery once again after looking like a shell of herself at LSU. Sedona Prince, at 24 years old, was returning for yet another season of college basketball. They had headlines, but they didn’t yet have proof. That changed when they bested Notre Dame in late November. That game set the trajectories of both teams: TCU blazed upwards while Notre Dame puttered to a slow drag. The Fighting Irish have loved to disappoint this season. The Horned Frogs can’t stop showing off. One team is going to be shattered on Saturday.

Notre Dame has the rare opportunity to get revenge on the team that started their oscillating disappointments. TCU can prove themselves to be a true title contender against the team that they used as their podium in the beginning of the season. I usually stick to the basketball, but honestly, this game will be won by whoever wants it more. Both teams have talent. Both teams have passion. Both teams have a bloodthirsty agenda. This one just means something more.

No. 1-seed Texas vs. No. 5 seed Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

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Tennessee is a stressful team to draw, even for a No. 1 seed. The Lady Vols, for lack of a better description, just chuck the ball up from 3-point land and pray it goes in. And it does. They’re third in the country in 3-point attempts and makes, first in points per game, and have seven players who attempt more than two 3 a game. They don’t even shoot at a very remarkable clip, averaging only a hair over 32 percent each night, but the pure volume is a nightmare to defend. It doesn’t matter who stands in their way—if the Volunteers are hitting, they’re going to keep moving on.

Texas is the polar opposite of their SEC rival. Whereas Tennessee is third in the NCAA in 3-point attempts, Texas is fourth to last. They only shoot ten 3s per game in comparison to Tennessee’s thirty. The Longhorns live in the paint and at the free-throw line, which projects well for their consistency. They also champion the best scoring defense of any SEC team. If each team plays to their averages, Texas will survive the Tennessee aerial onslaught. If the rims are feeling generous on Saturday night, Tennessee could send a No. 1 seed home early.

No. 2-seed UConn vs. No. 3-seed Oklahoma (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

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Despite UConn and Oklahoma only being separated by a single seed, UConn may very well be the biggest favorite of any of the four Saturday games. The Huskies haven’t had a single misstep through two rounds—they beat their first two opponents, Arkansas State and South Dakota State, by an average of 56.5 points. Ridiculous doesn’t even begin to describe the Huskies. Additionally, Paige Bueckers (finally) declared for the 2025 WNBA Draft, meaning that this is her last ride in blue and white. She’s not going down without a fight.

Oklahoma is a phenomenal team, however. They stomped Iowa last round, despite leading scorer Raegan Beers only connecting on two shots in 18 minutes. Beers will have to find a more meaningful impact on Saturday, but she surely will. Sarah Strong, Ice Brady and Jana El Alfy will have their hands full with post defense. Beers is only a junior, but sending Paige Bueckers packing for the draft would be quite a point on her resume. Expect Oklahoma to stick around.

No. 1-seed USC vs. No. 5-seed Kansas State (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

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Even if JuJu Watkins were healthy, USC and Kansas State would be a dog fight. With her absence, it actually may look scary for the Trojans. Kansas State is only a No. 5 seed, but they are not to be played with. Ayoka Lee is still battling a lingering foot injury, but has been productive in somewhat limited minutes so far in the tournament. The 6-foot-6 graduate student put up 16 points and nine rebounds in an overtime win against Georgia Amoore’s tough Kentucky squad. Her efficiency left something to be desired, but she’s found ways to connect the K-State offense, even if her own touch isn’t going.

Kiki Iriafen will stand opposite Lee. The two may offer one of the best, if not the best, post player matchup we’ve seen all tournament. Watkins will be missed, but something clicks inside Iriafen when she knows she has to turn up. We saw it last year when Cameron Brink fouled out against Iowa State—Iriafen finished with 41 points. When Watkins went down last game, Iriafen filled in with 36 points on 73 percent shooting. She’s a scary sight when she has confidence, and an even scarier sight when she’s getting the ball nearly every play. Lee will have a tough defensive assignment, and will have to stay out of foul trouble to keep the Wildcats afloat.

We don’t really know what a full game of a JuJu-less USC looks like, so anything could happen Saturday night.