NCAAW: Here’s why Iowa State should be sounding the alarm

Less than two weeks before conference play begins, Big 12 teams are starting to show their true colors. Here are some of the most notable storylines:

Should Iowa State be worried?

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No. 18 Iowa State has cemented their feet in the top 20 of the AP Poll despite losses to Northern Iowa (4-4) and South Carolina (9-1), but subjectivity may be masking their early-season tribulations. Quite simply, statistics don’t agree with the AP. Sorted by Simple Rating System (SRS), which takes into account record, strength of schedule and point margin, Iowa State barely cracks the top 50 of Division I programs.

Failing to overthrow South Carolina can be easily excused. Failing to score more than three points in the first 16 minutes of that game? Harder to justify. The Gamecocks 40-point win brought the Cyclones’ ability, both physically and mentally, into question. They didn’t look hungry enough. They didn’t play a polished brand of basketball. Dismissing such a bad loss because of South Carolina’s talent would be kind—but unhelpful—to a team that was perhaps in desperate need of a wake-up call.

Before the season began, I claimed that Iowa State’s success against top programs, and their potential to contend for a national championship, may be intrinsically tied to whether sophomore center Audi Crooks can expand her offensive horizons past pure scoring. One-dimensional post scorers, especially immobile ones who lack rim protection traits, are rarely floor-raisers to the extent of taking a team to the Final Four and beyond.

When South Carolina fell to UCLA, 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts flexed all her muscles. She dominated as an advantage creator, scorer and rim protecter. Despite being the Bruins’ lead scorer on the season, Betts only took eight shots. UCLA won by 15. Her gravity attracted help defenders as soon as she caught the ball, and her willingness to quickly defer to her teammates allowed them to play off of that advantage. Crooks isn’t there yet. She has tendencies to both drop step into double teams and settle for fading post jumpers, neither of which are healthy additions to her offensive diet. The Iowa State guards struggle to throw her entry passes at times, and don’t always recognize quick skip passes that her interior gravity may open up.

Iowa State has so much potential—but so much to clean up. They’re absolutely among the favorites in the Big 12, but they haven’t shown enough in non-conference play to confidently say that they’ll advance much further in March Madness than last season.

Kansas State consistency

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While Iowa State is receiving more recognition from the media than then statistics suggest they deserve, No. 13 Kansas State is comfortably parked at the other end of that intersection. While a top-15 AP ranking is rewarding in and of itself, it may be underselling K-State’s dominance. The Wildcats, according to SRS, have been the second-best team in the country thus far.

Grad center Ayoka Lee has been the most impactful player on the floor for nearly every second she’s played this season. If I would be granted the leniency of rounding 9.7 and 9.6 up, the Wildcats have seven players averaging double-digit points. Six players averaging more than four rebounds. Four averaging three or more assists.

Every mouth is being fed, and a plethora of failsafes make Kansas State that much harder to scheme against. How do you defend such a diverse offense? How do you score on such a physical defense? The Wildcats only loss came to No. 9 Duke, but they’ve never looked truly outmatched. However good you may think Kansas State is, they’re better.

Oklahoma State may be… good?

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The Oklahoma State Cowgirls have not played any ranked opponents, nor have they played more than one Power 5 team. No absolute claims should be made about whether or not they can maintain stride with other Big 12 powerhouses when conference play starts later this month. However, let’s celebrate progress! Oklahoma State, despite being at the bottom of the conference in preseason predictions, is currently in second. They finished with a 14-16 overall record last season. They’ve started 9-1 this year.

Junior guard Micah Gray, a Seton Hall transfer, is flourishing on her third team in three years. The Oklahoma City native is leading the team at 17.2 points per game. She’s a high volume 3-point shooter who’s prone to offensive explosion, which is a promising archetype of scorer for a team that will need to upset ranked opponents if they want to finish in the top half of conference play. Gray is a big reason that the Cowgirls are sixth in the country in made 3-pointers per game. They’re also the 10th-highest scoring team in the country.

Living on the 3-point line is both nerve-racking and fun, but Oklahoma State has even more room to grow. They’re only attempting 25 3s per game, despite being second in the nation in 3-point percentage as a team at 42.2 percent. If your team is shooting 42.2 percent from 3, you should be taking nearly 40 3s per game, even if that means that the percentage takes a notable hit. Programs like Florida Gulf Coast have suggested that volume from distance may be more conducive to winning than percentage from distance, and Oklahoma State should be dead set on testing that theory.

Until conference play starts, it will be impossible to get a good read on the Cowgirls. Their ability to connect from long range suggests that even if they fall back down to earth, they have the potential to shoot their way into any game.