NCAAW: Can No. 6 LSU beat No. 16 Tennessee to stay undefeated?

Although sporting a record that sparkles as much as head coach Kim Mulkey’s outfit du jour, the No. 6 LSU Tigers haven’t really been tested, facing only one ranked team on their way to their shiny 17-0 mark.

That changes on Thursday night, when Mulkey’s Krewe travels to Knoxville to take on the erstwhile unbeaten and No. 16-ranked Tennessee Lady Vols, who dropped their first game of the season on Sunday after a late comeback came up short.

Expect the game to be a high-scoring contrast of styles that will inform the true quality of the Tigers and Lady Vols. Has a soft schedule masked weakness for LSU? Or, does their average margin of victory of almost 32 points per game show that, regardless of schedule, the Tigers are a team to be feared? Was Tennessee’s hot start a product of their high-variance style? Or, has new head coach Kim Caldwell implemented a sustainable system that can survive the rigors of the SEC?

We’ll find out when the Tigers and Vols tip off at 6:30 p.m. ET (SECN+). Here’s a look at what could be the most determinative areas of the game:

Which offense will have the edge?

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The chief axiom of modern basketball is that three is more than two, and, as such, teams that adopt offensive systems organized around 3-point shooting are more likely to be successful than those that favor 2-point shots. However, if any coach has stressed this principle of so-called smart basketball, it’s been Kim Mulkey, whose teams have feasted on 2s, eschewed 3s and, more often than not, found themselves victorious.

While ranking 336th in the nation in 3-point attempts per game, the Tigers still own the third-highest scoring offense in the nation, clocking in at 91.8 points per game. They do most all this damage inside the arc, ranking second in the country in made 2-pointers, led by the triumvirate of junior guard Flau’jae Johnson (19.7 points per game), senior forward Aneesah Morrow (18.1 points per game) and sophomore guard Mikaylah Williams (15.9 points per game). LSU’s scoring attack also earns them trips to the line, where the team’s 23.4 free throw attempts per game, with an average of 4.9 per game from Morrow and 4.3 from Johnson, rank seventh nationally.

LSU, however, has never met at team that fires away as aggressively as Tennessee. Driven by an average of 36.5 3-point attempts per game, the Lady Vols ring up a nation-leading 97.3 points per game. However, Tennessee does not solely sling 3s; rather, their 3-point shooting also creates space for easier 2-point scores, as the Vols are 10th nationally in made 2-pointers per game. Their modern offensive system has led to distributed scoring. While sophomore guard Talaysia Cooper leads the team with 17.8 points per game, four Lady Vols —grad guard Jewel Spear, junior guard Ruby Whitehorn, senior guard Samara Spencer and junior forward Zee Spearman—post between 11 and 13 points per game.

In contrast to LSU, Tennessee is less successful at getting to the line, attempting 18 free throws per game and making only 65 percent of them. It’s a weak point that could prove pivotal in a close game, especially if LSU opts to compete with Tennessee by taking more 3s. Johnson and Williams are the Tigers’ most willing deep shooters, with both possessing percentages (38.7 percent and 36.4 percent, respectively) that indicate that, by taking a few more triples, they could push the Tigers over the top for a win.

Which team will win the glass, possession game?

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With shots flying from both teams, the glass could be the territory on which this game is decided. Both teams are aggressive on the offensive glass, with the Lady Vols grabbing the most o-boards in the nation at 20.9 per contest; the Tigers aren’t too far behind with 17.4 per game, which ranks sixth nationally. LSU is just as rapacious on the defensive glass, corralling 31.6 per game. The Lady Vols are less successful at ending possessions, raking in an average of 22.6 defensive boards per game.

These numbers suggest that LSU will have the advantage, as they not only can limit Tennessee’s offensive rebounding effectiveness, but also create extra opportunities with their own offensive boards. Morrow, in particular, could be in for a big game, as she averages five offensive rebounds per game.

To regain an edge on LSU, Tennessee has to hope that their high-pressure defense, defined by 14.9 steals per game, troubles the Tigers, inducing them into more turnovers than normal. If not, the Lady Vols, who rely on a preponderance of extra possessions, could find themselves behind the Tigers in the possession game, and, more importantly, on the scoreboard.

Game information

No. 6 LSU Tigers (17-0, 2-0) vs. No. 16 Tennessee Lady Vols (13-1, 1-1)

When: Thursday, Jan. 9 at 6:30 p.m. ET

Where: Food City Center in Knoxville, TN

How to watch: SECN+